中国调整股票印花税至0.3%，股市大跌！

老鼠爱小米

<strong><font size="5">ZF的公信力比股市跌得更厉害</font></strong>
        <ul><li><div class="Content_article"><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">我国曾<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">6</span>次调整证券交易印花税率，最早一次是在 <span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1991</span>年<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">10</span>日，由<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.6</span>％下调至<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.3</span>％。一般来说，调整证券交易印花税率短期内会对股市产生较大影响。例如，<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2001</span>年<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">16</span>日，证券交易印花税率由<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.4</span>％调至<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.2</span>％，当日沪综指跳空高开，幅度达<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">6.42%</span>；<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1997</span>年<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">10</span>日，印花税率由<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.3</span>％提高到<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">0.5</span>％，导致沪综指出现<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">200</span>点左右的跌幅。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">财政部决定自<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">2007</span>年<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">30</span>日起，调整证券（股票）交易印花税税率，由现行<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1</span>‰调整为<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3</span>‰ 。周三在财政部提高股票交易印花税率的背景下，大盘出现大幅下搓的走势，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">沪市全天下跌<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">281</span>点，深市全天下跌<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">829</span>点。<span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: en-us; mso-fareast-language: zh-cn; mso-bidi-language: ar-sa;">两市有约<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">860</span>只个股跌停。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">而就在前几日，各大报纸都报道：对于证券交易印花税率将提高的传闻，财政部相关部门作出回应，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'times new roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">“</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">未听说近期将调整印花税</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'times new roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">”</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">更令人不解的是，就在前几天，有关部门还信誓旦旦保证，<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>不会再用行政手段干预股市，会让股市按照自己的运行方式去发展<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">”</span>。可如今，就在全国人民半夜熟睡时，却把<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>绳索<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">”</span>悄悄地套在他们的脖子上。<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US"><a title="证券" href="http://www.iask.com/n?k=%D6%A4%C8%AF" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">证券</span></span></a></span>交易印花税一下子提高两倍，股市也被如愿地拿走<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">22</span>亿多的印花税。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">其实，谁都知道，时下，股市确实太火，对于<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>证券交易印花税上调至<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3‰”</span>是为了<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>促进股市健康<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">”</span>之举，也没有人持有异议。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">但是，<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>证券交易印花税上调至<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">3‰”</span>，作为财政部、国税总局两个主要职能部门，没有理由不知道。财政部、国税总局<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>辟谣<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">”</span>的声音还余音绕梁，<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>谣言<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">”</span>就变成了现实。无论是为了保密还是什么，对于老百姓来说，总觉得被大大地<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">“</span>忽悠<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">”</span>了一把，而ZF部门以这样的手段对付普通股民，在老百姓看来，已不仅仅是经济问题，更主要的是在挑衅ZF部门的公信力和美誉度，让股民对有关ZF部门产生信任危机。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">ZF官员如此利用自己的公信力来推行一些政策的做法，实在是得不偿失。这种做法不仅仅在提高印花税上使用，而且在利率、汇率问题上也重复使用，如此下去，老百姓还会相信ZF官员的话吗？ZF的公信力还会存在吗？为了调控股市，而拿ZF的公信力去做赌注，实在算不上高明的措施。</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">调整证券<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">(</span>股票<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">)</span>交易印花税对资本市场可能会产生短暂的影响，但从长期来看，影响有限。</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">而这种做法对ZF的公信力的影响却是长久的。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;">印花税率的提高其本意是为了降低市场的投机氛围，据资料显示目前<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">A</span>股市场上<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">646</span>只股票<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">14</span>个交易日内换手达<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">100%</span>，投机氛围较为明显，因此提高印花税率是冷却市场的一中手段。但是印花税率的提高给市场带来的确实痛苦，其将导致市场交易量的锐减，交易成本的提高必然会打击市场的人气，印花税率的提高对于市场来说就是实实在在的利空。历史经验也能证明这一点，最典型的是<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1997</span>年<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">5</span>月印花税率的向上调整，似乎与大盘的见顶完全合拍，给人的印象是印花税率的提高导致了<span lang="EN-US" xmllang="EN-US">1997</span>年大牛市的终结。如果历史会重演，那么本次印花税的调整也将使大盘构筑中期头部。</span></p></div></li></ul>