【外汇】金管局对新元保持中性立场，对新元构成支撑

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金管局对新元保持中性立场，对新元构成支撑，出乎广泛预期，这就是市场！！！

http://www.mas.gov.sg/news_room/statements/2009/Monetary_Policy_Statement_14Apr09.html

MAS MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT

Date: 14 Apr 2009

INTRODUCTION

1.        InOctober 2008, MAS shifted its policy stance to a zero percentappreciation of the S$NEER policy band.  The decision was taken amidsteasing external and domestic inflationary pressures, and a weakeningglobal economic environment.

Chart 1 Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER)

2.        Since the last policy review, the S$NEER (Chart 1) haslargely fluctuated in the lower half of the policy band.  Thisreflected a number of factors, including the general strength of theUS$, continued risk aversion by global investors and the erosion indomestic economic conditions.  With the fall in global interest rates,the domestic three-month interbank rate also declined, from 1.88% inSeptember 2008 to 0.69% at end-March 2009.

OUTLOOK FOR 2009

3.        The Singapore economy recorded a broad-basedcontraction of 16.4% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjustedannualised (q-o-q SAAR) basis in Q4 2008.  Amidst the unprecedentedcollapse in global demand, trade-related activities such asmanufacturing, wholesale trade and transport services deceleratedsharply, while the financial sector was adversely affected by theturmoil in international financial markets.  According to the Advance Estimatesreleased by the Ministry of Trade and Industry today, GDP contracted bya further 19.7% q-o-q SAAR in Q1 2009, with the decline accentuated bya reduction in pharmaceutical output.  Both electronics manufacturingand financial services experienced a slower rate of contraction inearly 2009 compared to Q4 2008.   

4.        Looking ahead, some moderation in the rate ofdecline in economic activity around the world is expected following thesteep fall since the end of last year.  A number of leading indicatorshave recently picked up slightly, and consumption spending has held upsomewhat better than expected, particularly in the US.  While this isencouraging, considerable downside risks to growth remain.  Job losseshave been significant, and segments of the broader credit marketcontinue to be impaired.  Against this backdrop and in view of thesharp fall in domestic economic output over the past two quarters,Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2009 has been lowered to between-9% and -6%.  

5.        In the meantime, CPI inflation has slowedsignificantly to 2.4% year-on-year in Jan-Feb 2009, from 5.4% in Q4last year.  This was largely due to the sharp decline in the prices ofdirect oil-related items, such as petrol, as well as a moderation infood price increases.  In addition, price increases of several retailitems such as clothing and household durables have eased.  CPIinflation will continue to fall in the coming months, reflecting acombination of lower commodity prices and increased slack in thedomestic economy.  Domestic cost pressures are moderating, as evidencedby the fall in rentals and more subdued wage increases.  With the highbase in 2008, headline inflation would temporarily turn negative incertain months this year.  For the whole of 2009, the CPI inflationforecast is unchanged at -1% to 0%.1      

MONETARY POLICY

6.        Amidst the global downturn and continuingstresses in world financial markets, external and domestic inflationarypressures are dissipating.  Meanwhile, the domestic economy is likelyto remain below potential till a decisive recovery is seen inSingapore’s export markets.

7.        In our assessment, the current level of theS$NEER is appropriate for maintaining domestic price stability over themedium term, taking into account the prospects for growth in theSingapore economy.  MAS will therefore re-centre the exchange ratepolicy band to the prevailing level of the S$NEER, while keeping thezero percent appreciation path.  The width of the band will remainunchanged.  The Singapore economy continues to be anchored by soundfundamentals and a resilient financial system.  There is therefore noreason for any undue weakening of the Singapore dollar.

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1   The 2009 CPI inflation forecast was revised to -1.0% to 0% at MTI’s Annual Economic Survey media briefing on 21 Jan 2009.

不死尐狼

No futher depreciation?

hwwca

2# 不死尐狼

我不认为这样,因波动区间接近下限,只是不会有明显快贬.

有美市银行高业绩预期, 股市开盘跌,显示此立场不受股市欢迎.

不死尐狼

最近好象在慢慢的下跌，要回到4.5，不知道还会不会跌破