本帖最后由 knight0819 于 14-12-2012 15:05 编辑
政虎會贏，還是混蛋會贏？？
As we predicted when this began, Muddy Waters got in over their heads tackling Olam. The rumor in Hong Kong is that Muddy Waters is the cash strapped and needed a fast Olam victory, but choosing Olam as a target was ill advised. As it stands now, Olam will outlive Muddy Waters in financial terms. Olam is one of Temasek’s many holding and that is a problem for anyone seeking to collapse a company, Temasek is a powerhouse. Temasek is not your regular investment fund Muddy Waters so easily scare, Temasek have wider responsibility, one to the Sovereign Nation of Singapore and it’s people. Temasek could stand to lose 10′s of billions if Olam were to fail and the Singapore Financial Hub, Singapore Stock Exchange left tarnished. It will not happen. Temasek was incorporated in 1974 with an initial portfolio valued at S$354 million. The portfolio has grown to a record S$198 billion in March 2012.
Temasek Portfolio Value
Muddy Waters should have known that, Singapore is not China, it is hard to build momentum against a company as Maddy Waters has done in China unless you can feed off the Western World’s Xenophobic fear of all things Chinese. This week the Muddy Waters problems took a turn for the worse. Straits Times reported, Kewalram Singapore, which owns 20 per cent of Olam, announced in an e-mail statement on Monday that it fully supported the commodities trader’s offering. It said it believed Olam’s proposed rights issue was “in the best interest of the company, and is an attractive investment opportunity for all shareholders, as well as being beneficial to the bondholders”. As far as the technicals go on Olam’s chart there is no doubt it is in dangerous territory, but the key number that Muddy Waters will be pushing for is a break below the rights issue price, under $1.30 and Olam will have trouble. So far the stock is resisting that level and is painting an ominous picture of the Muddy Waters Short position. The rights issue takes advantage of Muddy Waters cash position. Based on volume, I would estimate the short position averages around $1.90SGD, the brokers acting on behalf of the short seller would have a safety margin of around 30% so the stock needs to run to $2.34 to rid the company of that short seller. The average short away from the short seller looks to be around 1.68SGD, so they will become buyers at the $1.86SGD point.
Here is m chart from last week, so far we are in line with my expectations. Click to see the Chart.
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