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发表于 28-10-2010 04:18:14|来自：新加坡
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Expansion of consumption can not do anything for economic growth policies
Zhang
I recently published article, \. Sure enough, that I once again demonstrate a phenomenon mentioned in the article, we all believe that China's consumption demand, and believe that. This is a proposition that seems difficult to be overturned. However, lack of domestic consumer demand This assessment is not necessarily so beautifully shy.
many people have mentioned the following figures to illustrate the problem of inadequate consumption of the Chinese there. the experience of developed countries, over the years, the domestic consumer spending is often accounted for 75% of GDP, or even more. This proportion is slightly lower in developing countries, but nearly 70%. in the national savings rate is relatively high economies of East Asia (such as Japan, Korea, Singapore, etc.), the people's consumption share of GDP, slightly lower, but also in 60% (of which ** spending accounted for about 10% of GDP). From the point of view of official statistics, in recent years China's domestic final consumption expenditure (including ** consumption expenditures) less than half of GDP. deducted ** consumer spending, statistics show that China's current consumer spending accounts for only 36% of GDP, and this proportion has been 90 since the last century,beijing escort, also showing a declining pattern.
economics, there is a diminishing marginal return on capital principle, it tells us that excessive capital accumulation (corresponding to the artificially low consumption) is not driven by the growth be sustained. In the past the planned economy period, we rely on the development of high accumulation of low consumption only bring short-lived policy economic prosperity. And if such a low consumption of China and its proportion of the downward trend is true, then we can not explain how the Chinese economy to maintain rapid growth for so long.
I do not think today's Chinese economy can still be \Today, the Chinese economy has already bid farewell to the era of central planning,beijing massage, market and economic forces of economic change and opening up the guidelines. In such conditions, an economy at the macro level the ratio between the number of large (such as the accumulation and consumption, savings and investment,guangzhou escort, etc.) should be subject to market forces and economic openness in general tends to dominate and reasonable fishes, otherwise, the economic consequences could be disastrous. Just think, if for some reason 10 years, our domestic consumption expenditure to GDP growth continuing decline in economic growth can continue for so many years on the track instead of derailment?
to consumption patterns and consumption / GDP accounting,The reality or the real estate market can pull - the purchase of Union Club www.bj-focused blog, the intuition tells me that China should be closer to the experience of East Asian economies (consumption / GDP accounted for than about 60%). In my previous article mentioned in the text emphasized,beijing massage, since the figures their own reasons, our GDP, consumption should be better than we have seen much higher, as its age in the past 10 not decline even more credible. Although it is not my thing I read in rigorous academic essays, but still hope it will give readers a friendly reminder, there are claims of inadequate consumption is likely to exaggerate the seriousness of the problem Perhaps we see on the aggregate statistics on the proportion of the decline in consumption is more statistical illusion caused its own problems, of which residential housing and other services such as consumer spending is a statistical treatment of serious errors in the core of the problem .
judgments with insufficient consumption echoes the expansion of consumption to drive growth in the proposition. In fact, this is a specious argument, it is easy to mislead policy makers. expansion of consumption can be a growth policy? Economics The answer must be not at home. The reason is simple. If in order to expand consumer spending, the ** decided this year, investment in fixed assets for half the money (about 20% of GDP) used as a voucher issued to every citizen, to driving future economic growth and job creation it? Obviously not. Under normal conditions, this result certainly push the price level, leading to inflation. We are in the 80's,beijing escort, enterprises and institutions in the distribution of salaries and bonuses totaling more than national income ( was called super-distribution of national income),guangzhou massage, resulting in inflation over and over again. Only in a recession, the expansion of consumption as a short-term emergency policies can only be used one, because the recession,guangzhou massage, the community has a significant increase in the sale of inventory, consumer spending as the ** plan or policy of consumer subsidies can help to digest the community inventory, to prevent further decline in the economy has some positive effect. This is the Keynesian \used to deal with the global expansion of economic crisis and achieved certain results consumer policy is a good example. But this is only meaningful in the short term to deal with depression.
the long term, determining economic growth and rising per capita incomes are those who encourage capital formation and boost productivity, help improve the policy, not policy to encourage consumption. exaggerated consumption of less than a misplaced our attention. In fact, if the services take into consideration the real growth in consumer spending, I estimate the final consumption expenditure (including ** consumption) relative to GDP is not a big change. World Bank data shows that over the years, the Chinese people's savings rate has not risen, even many years there have declined. but because of Chinese enterprises faster productivity growth, coupled with the existing characteristics of the labor market from the production sector of the \a lot of debt. do not have extra savings, China's economic growth may slow to take to the next.
China's economy is in capital formation and rapid growth phase. As investment has maintained a sustained growth, sustained productivity of China's economy improved. continued macroeconomic effects of increased productivity were often misread as a structural overcapacity and insufficient consumption in order to prove the existence of. the phenomenon of excess capacity in some point in time there may be individual industries or products, but these not prove to be a structural problem. My view is that, with excess capacity to support the consumption of less than the judge or support to expand the consumption-led economic growth, saying, still lack sufficient theoretical and empirical evidence.
we can get basic knowledge of economics is that the proportion of GDP, consumption accounts for the long term, will certainly continue to increase (correspondingly, the national savings rate will keep falling), but that is the result of continued economic growth rather than the opposite. Japan and East Asia tigers economy provides a good example. only through capital investment continued to improve a country's per capita capital stock, labor productivity to increase, wages and per capita income levels can continue to improve. expanding consumption can not be conceived as a long-term policies to promote economic growth . from the development stage of China's economy and per capita income levels to appeal to the expansion of consumer demand, not only in theory plausible,guangzhou escort, and easy to mislead the public, that the consumer is driving long-term economic growth engine. China is now the per capita income of less developed economies one-tenth the per capita capital stock is also only 5% of Japan, which means that at this stage in China than in developed economies to maintain a higher growth rate of investment is not only possible, but also achieve rapid growth and narrowing income and developed economies necessary income gap.
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