[讨论]面对现在的市场，行动还是观望？

咖喱咖喱 · 发表于 16-8-2007 15:26:00|来自：英国

今天成交量是最近大跌以来较低的.可以说明的是,该卖的已经卖了,想买的还未动手.等到再打一波,把所有多头都打蒙,那时候就可以放手买了.不要急,过两天还有更便宜的.

此地无银 · 发表于 16-8-2007 15:37:00|来自：英国

bid不到，飞走了.... 明天再跌吧.....新加坡股市这两天跌幅比亚洲其他各市都多... 应该要放缓调整了...

咖喱咖喱 · 发表于 16-8-2007 16:03:00|来自：英国

最近跌多的是韩国和印尼.新才跌多少啊.每天3-4%而已.人家印尼两天跌了近15%.不知有没有做卧底的朋友能不能探听到点消息.印泥为什么狂泻呢.是因为鬼子商人抽资回去救火还是政局不稳搞暴动啊?回11楼,便宜是不能放过的.只是要慢慢捡,并且要小心反革命!

Arkey · 发表于 16-8-2007 23:22:00|来自：英国

<div class="msgheader">QUOTE:</div><div class="msgborder">以下是引用雨茜在2007-8-16 0:46:00的发言： 这段时间市场暴跌， 对外行来讲，人心惶惶，害怕所谓的熊市就此来临。 不过，其实是一个非常好的机会。 因为，市场的基本面和基础依然非常的良好。 这次的暴跌主要的原因其实是市场心态的问题。 当人们逐渐走出对次贷引起的恐慌，市场自然会再起来。 我们要情绪左右自己，继续观望， 还是把握时间，积极行动呢？ 我要说，这是一次非常好的投资机会。 不过，机会是给有准备的人准备的。 </div>The discussion here seems rather abstract for me. Which market are you referring to, <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">Singapore</place></country-region>? <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">China</place></country-region>? Or <place wst="on">Asia</place> as a whole? Greatly appreciate if you could further explain why it’s now a good opportunity to invest, as now the discussion is going philosophical with hardly any sound analysis.I’m really indifferent coz I don’t invest in any sort of assets. Hahaha. So I’d like to hear more substantial reasons of which stock to buy or why it’s not a right time to invest, etc. But you’re right to say that the market shock is different from 1998 because the economies of <place wst="on">Asia</place> looks good this year, with strong support of huge foreign reserves and current account surplus. However, <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">Indonesia</place></country-region>’s stock market  just saw the worst drop since the Asian crisis. On Thursday, the MSCIEA index fell by 6%. <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">Korea</place></country-region>’s kospi index fell 7%. I guess the fall is not entirely induced by the storm in <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">US</place></country-region> subprime mortgage market as these countries have not much exposure to CDOs. I’d rather attribute it to a contagious effect of a glooming growth prospect of the <place wst="on"><country-region wst="on">US</country-region></place> economy, which potentially harms the trade between US and these Asian countries.

Arkey · 发表于 17-8-2007 07:56:00|来自：英国

啊~我不是要挖什么吖，只是觉得课题的发起者也应该谈谈自己的看法和逻辑根据，不然整个讨论就架构在空谈上了。

雨茜 · 发表于 17-8-2007 01:27:00|来自：英国

<div class="msgheader">QUOTE:</div><div class="msgborder">以下是引用Arkey在2007-8-17 1:20:00的发言： Yeah it's not appropriate to promote any particular stock here but I was just suggesting further solid analysis, among other questions like why it is/isn't a right time to invest, if any.  I'm not buying stocks anyway coz I have no money. </div>OK. As you like to dig out more[em01], I'd like to answer.Stay calm and patient, stay invested. Unless you need to use your money, selling out now at a sharp loss is unwanted and painful. New investors and existing investors, who have been building up cash should consider investing in tranches. Spread over the next few months.

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-8-17 1:28:47编辑过]

都市放牛 · 发表于 17-8-2007 00:09:00|来自：英国

<div class="msgheader">QUOTE:</div><div class="msgborder">以下是引用咖喱咖喱在2007-8-16 16:03:00的发言： 最近跌多的是韩国和印尼.新才跌多少啊.每天3-4%而已.人家印尼两天跌了近15%.不知有没有做卧底的朋友能不能探听到点消息.印泥为什么狂泻呢.是因为鬼子商人抽资回去救火还是政局不稳搞暴动啊?回11楼,便宜是不能放过的.只是要慢慢捡,并且要小心反革命!</div>老大家里着火了，鬼子商人抽资回去不是救火，而是趁火打劫，抢美金去了。看来老美又要“求”中国人，逼人民币升值了。。。。这世界又要风云变幻了，真的是好戏连连。

Arkey · 发表于 17-8-2007 00:17:00|来自：英国

<div class="msgheader">QUOTE:</div><div class="msgborder">以下是引用都市放牛在2007-8-17 0:09:00的发言： 老大家里着火了，鬼子商人抽资回去不是救火，而是趁火打劫，抢美金去了。看来老美又要“求”中国人，逼人民币升值了。。。。这世界又要风云变幻了，真的是好戏连连。</div>Usually, market turmoil will press the affected currency towards depreciation but not appreication.

雨茜 · 发表于 17-8-2007 00:58:00|来自：英国

<div class="msgheader">QUOTE:</div><div class="msgborder">以下是引用Arkey在2007-8-16 23:22:00的发言： The discussion here seems rather abstract for me. Which market are you referring to, <country-region wst="on"></country-region><place wst="on"></place>Singapore<place></place><country-region></country-region>? <country-region wst="on"></country-region><place wst="on"></place>China<place></place><country-region></country-region>? Or <place wst="on"></place>Asia<place></place> as a whole? Greatly appreciate if you could further explain why it’s now a good opportunity to invest, as now the discussion is going philosophical with hardly any sound analysis.I’m really indifferent coz I don’t invest in any sort of assets. Hahaha. So I’d like to hear more substantial reasons of which stock to buy or why it’s not a right time to invest, etc. But you’re right to say that the market shock is different from 1998 because the economies of <place wst="on"></place>Asia<place></place> looks good this year, with strong support of huge foreign reserves and current account surplus. However, <country-region wst="on"></country-region><place wst="on"></place>Indonesia<place></place><country-region></country-region>’s stock market  just saw the worst drop since the Asian crisis. On Thursday, the MSCIEA index fell by 6%. <country-region wst="on"></country-region><place wst="on"></place>Korea<place></place><country-region></country-region>’s kospi index fell 7%. I guess the fall is not entirely induced by the storm in <country-region wst="on"></country-region><place wst="on"></place>US<place></place><country-region></country-region> subprime mortgage market as these countries have not much exposure to CDOs. I’d rather attribute it to a contagious effect of a glooming growth prospect of the <place wst="on"></place><country-region wst="on"></country-region>US<country-region></country-region><place></place> economy, which potentially harms the trade between US and these Asian countries. </div>As requested, the answer is:Markets have been extremely volatile lately.  The primary cause of this correction is the indiscriminate lending, creating this sub-prime loan mess.  Banks have in turn bundled these problematic sub-prime loans into new exotic financial instrument known as CDOs (collateralized debt obligations) and CLOs (collateralized loan obligations). These CDOs and CLOs are then off-loaded, in various risk tranches, to financial institutions and their unsuspecting investors around the world.  Of course, hedge funds often take the junkiest tranches.  The size of these bad debts is estimated to be around US$100 billion, according to the US Federal Reserve Department.  However, more aggressive parties have estimated the size to be around US$200 – US$300 billion.  Regardless of the estimate, this amount is not huge enough to change the fundamentals of the real economy.  The US GDP is estimated below US$15 trillion, the world over US$50 trillion.  However, the damage to sentiment and financial markets is more severe. Sentiment has been greatly affected because many parties have bought into the CDO and CLO structures.  The bottle of poison has been shared by many.  The good news is, because the poison was diluted to many, very few will be badly hit as the toxicity is also “diluted”.  Now comes the next fear – credit crunch.  Financial institutions are a lot more careful on lending because they do not know who is exposed to the CLOs and CDOs and what the quality of their holdings is. The immediate result will be tighter lending practices and higher cost on borrowings in the short term until more clarity emerges on the actual exposure on sub-prime loans. Such uncertainty explains the fear.  Central banks from developed economies have pumped in hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity into the market recently, which helped to inject some stability into money market system.  Central banks in <place wst="on">Asia</place> ex-Japan are standing by, armed with their US$3 trillion in foreign reserves.   As if the situation is not negative enough, we are now facing the prospects of the unwinding of the Yen carry trade.  Many investors and hedge funds have taken advantage of the cheap borrowings from <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">Japan</place></country-region> (effectively shorting the Yen) over the years to invest in financial instruments to capture higher returns.  This “no-brainer” is fine as long as the Japanese Yen does not appreciate too much.  However, when hedge funds and leveraged traders that are exposed to CLOs and CDOs face redemption and losses, they need to sell both their good and bad
holdings to pay back investors who want to sell out.  In this sort of fist fight, by-standers get pummeled, too.  When carry position unwinds, they will also pay back the yen borrowings (effectively buying the Yen).  In the process, we are seeing some unwinding of the Yen carry trade.  This will cause the Yen currency to appreciate which would trigger more unwinding.  The end result is lower liquidity in the financial system which is negative for capital markets.  This short term volatility will eventually clean up some excessive liquidity in the system and clear up and wipe off the exposure of the sub prime loan mess.  Then market will resume its uptrend on a cleaner foundation.  Thus far, the impact on the real economy is minimal and we expect the strong fundamentals to sustain this uptrend in the market.On the technical front, the DJI is testing an important support level at the upper channel at 12,200.  If this level breaks, the selldown could become more severe as the major support is at the lower channel support at 11,000. <div style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 1pt; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; mso-element: para-border-div; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt;">The STI has broken through the upper channel support at 3,150.  The next test will be the psychological support level at 3,000.  The worst case scenario will be a test on the lower channel support at the 2,800 levels.</div>

Arkey · 发表于 17-8-2007 01:20:00|来自：英国

<div class="msgheader">QUOTE:</div><div class="msgborder">以下是引用雨茜?007-8-17 1:15:00的发言： I am sorry that I am not at the position to talk about which stock to buy. If you'd like to hear these, please approach to someone else. [em01]</div>Yeah it's not appropriate to promote any particular stock here but I was just suggesting further solid analysis, among other questions like why it is/isn't a right time to invest, if any.  I'm not buying stocks anyway coz I have no money.

[讨论]面对现在的市场，行动还是观望？

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