独家新闻：“中国印度将推动亚洲经济强劲增长”

老鼠爱小米

<p><font size="5">独家新闻：“中国印度将推动亚洲经济强劲增长”</font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4">英国《金融时报》拉斐尔&#8226;曼代(Raphael Minder)马尼拉报道 <br/>2007年9月18日 星期二 <br/>&nbsp; <br/>亚洲开发银行(ADB)预计，尽管全球信贷市场出现动荡、美国经济增长放缓，但中国和印度迅速发展的国内消费，将推动今明两年亚洲经济的强劲增长。</font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4">亚行昨日大幅上调了2007年日本以外亚洲地区的经济增长预期，从6个月前预测的7.6%调高至8.3%。2008年的增长预期则从7.7%升至8.2%。</font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4">“亚洲发展中国家对外部冲击的抵御能力较强，能够经得住美国经济增长的放缓，”亚行首席经济学家艾弗兹&#8226;阿里(Ifzal Ali)表示，“该地区拥有强有力的金融防御能力。”<br/></font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4">亚行表示，其现有工作是基于这样的假设：此轮信贷紧缩将导致美国经济增长放缓，而不是陷入经济衰退。如果出现美国经济衰退这种最糟糕的情况，同时伴之以美元贬值10%，那么增长预期将至多降低2个百分点。</font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4">阿里表示，甚至美国经济明显放缓，对于一些存在经济过热迹象的亚洲国家而言，可能都是好消息。他表示：“如果资金流入从湍流变为涓滴，亚洲各国央行倒可能会松一口气，因为这会使货币管理变得简单得多，这听起来有些自相矛盾。”</font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4">中国和印度占亚洲发展中国家GDP的55%。亚行预计，不包括中印两国，（亚洲地区）今年的经济增幅为5.7%，2008年为5.6%，这突显出印尼和越南等国的长足进步。</font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4">阿里辩称，亚洲经受美国经济低迷考验的能力，源自其迅速发展的内部消费、累积的2.6万亿美元外汇储备，以及更为成熟、健康的金融机构和市场。他表示：“与10年或20年前相比，亚洲利用全球信贷市场的需求已大大降低。”</font></p><p><font face="细明体" size="4"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"><tbody><tr><td valign="bottom"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="storyTitle" id="storyTitle">Asian economies to weather credit turmoil</td></tr><tr><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td class="textGray" id="byLine">By Raphael Minder in Manila</td></tr><tr><td class="textGray" id="dateLine">Tuesday, September 18, 2007</td></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="20">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td class="storyContent"><!--Element not supported - Type: 8 Name: #comment--><!--Element not supported - Type: 8 Name: #comment--><div class="storyContent" id="ContentBody"><p>Booming domestic consumption in China and India will lead to robust economic growth in Asia this year and the next in spite of turmoil on global credit markets and a US slowdown, the Asian Development Bank has forecast. </p><p>The ADB yesterday sharply increased its 2007 growth forecast for Asia excluding Japan to 8.3 per cent from the 7.6 per cent it predicted just six months ago. For 2008, the forecast was raised to 8.2 per cent from 7.7 per cent. </p><p>“Developing Asia's defences against external shocks are solid and it can weather a slowdown in the US,'' said Ifzal Ali, ADB chief economist. “It has stout financial defences.”</p><p>The ADB said it was working on the assumption the credit squeeze would lead to a slowdown in US growth rather than a recession. Its worst-case scenario of a US recession, coupled with a 10 per cent slide in the value of the dollar, would cut predicted growth by a maximum of two percentage points. </p><p>Even a serious US slowdown could be good news for some Asian countries that were showing signs of overheating, he said. ”Paradoxically, Asian central banks might heave a sigh of relief if the capital inflow turns from a torrent to a trickle, because that makes monetary management much more simple,” Mr Ali said.</p><p>Excluding China and India, which represent 55 per cent of developing Asia's gross domestic product, the ADB forecast growth of 5.7 per cent this year and 5.6 per cent in 2008, underlining significant progress in countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam.</p><p>Mr Ali argued Asia's ability to weather a US downturn stemmed from its booming domestic consumption, the build-up of $2,600bn in reserves, and more mature and healthy financial institutions and markets. He said “there was much less need for Asia to tap global credit markets than 10 or 20 years ago”.</p></div></td></tr></tbody></table><br/></font></p>