华夏总行12月6日外汇评论: 美元强劲反弹

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<div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" width="480" border="0" style="WIDTH: 326.05pt; mso-cellspacing: .7pt; mso-padding-alt: .7pt .7pt .7pt .7pt;"><tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes;"><td width="421" style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 285.95pt; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12.5pt;"><font face="宋体">华夏总行<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">6</span>日外汇评论<span lang="EN-US">:</span>美元强劲反弹<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></span></b></p></td><td width="56" rowspan="2" style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 38.05pt; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><!--Element not supported - Type: 8 Name: #comment--><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt;"><p><font face="宋体">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><font face="宋体"><span class="article-subheader"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt;">作者</span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt;">
                                                                        <span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://bbs.sgchinese.com/bk/BkDetail.jsp?blogId=19291"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><font color="#000000">华夏总行</font></span></span></a> 2007-12-06 11:40<p></p></span></span></font></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="DISPLAY: none; FONT-SIZE: 8pt; mso-hide: all;"><p><font face="宋体" size="3">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" width="480" border="0" style="WIDTH: 326.05pt; mso-cellspacing: .7pt; mso-padding-alt: .7pt .7pt .7pt .7pt;"><tbody><tr style="HEIGHT: 5.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes;"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 5.45pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;"><p><font face="宋体" size="3">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 2.05pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;"><td background="/pic/share/line_bg2.jpg" style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 2.05pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 2pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;"><p><font face="宋体" size="3">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 5.45pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 5.45pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;"><p><font face="宋体" size="3">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 2.7pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 2.7pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 3pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;"><p><font face="宋体" size="3">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"><td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.7pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.7pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.7pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0.7pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 14.95pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt;"><font face="宋体" size="3">昨晚<span lang="EN-US">,</span>美元再度反弹<span lang="EN-US">,</span>盘中美元指数最高为<span lang="EN-US">76.52</span>点<span lang="EN-US">,</span>为<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">2</span>日以来最高<span lang="EN-US">.</span>昨晚美元继续反弹主要有以下原因</font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">:&#8209;<br/>1.</span>昨晚美国公布的经济数据表现不错<span lang="EN-US">:</span>昨晚<span lang="EN-US">,</span>美国公布的<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月份私人雇主就业人数达到<span lang="EN-US">18.9</span>万人<span lang="EN-US">,</span>高于<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份该数据<span lang="EN-US">10.6</span>万人<span lang="EN-US">.</span>美国今年第<span lang="EN-US">3</span>季度非农生产力增幅为<span lang="EN-US">2003</span>年第<span lang="EN-US">3</span>季度以来最大<span lang="EN-US">,</span>达到<span lang="EN-US">6.3%,</span>高于预期增长<span lang="EN-US">5.8%.</span>美国公布的<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份工厂订单月率增长<span lang="EN-US">0.5%,</span>高于前值增长</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">0.2%.&#8209;<br/>2.</span>昨晚<span lang="EN-US">OPEC</span>国际石油组织表示<span lang="EN-US">:</span>暂时不脱离与美元挂钩<span lang="EN-US">.</span>昨晚阿联酋央行行长表示<span lang="EN-US">:</span>很多海湾合作委员会成员国将不会使其货币与美元脱钩或进行重估<span lang="EN-US">.GCC</span>是由<span lang="EN-US">6</span>个国家组成<span lang="EN-US">,</span>它们是沙特<span lang="EN-US">,</span>阿联酋<span lang="EN-US">,</span>阿曼<span lang="EN-US">,</span>巴林<span lang="EN-US">,</span>科威特和卡塔尔<span lang="EN-US">.</span>不过科威特今年已经与美元脱钩</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>今日上午美元继续保持强劲反弹<span lang="EN-US">,</span>盘中最高为<span lang="EN-US">76.59</span>点<span lang="EN-US">,</span>截止发稿时<span lang="EN-US">,</span>美元指数运行在<span lang="EN-US">76.50</span>点上下运行</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>从短线走势看<span lang="EN-US">,</span>市场降低了美联储未来降息的力度<span lang="EN-US">,</span>令美元获得反弹<span lang="EN-US">.</span>从目前情况看<span lang="EN-US">,</span>短线美元指数能否有效突破<span lang="EN-US">76.50</span>点<span lang="EN-US">.</span>如果短线美元指数有效突破<span lang="EN-US">76.50</span>点<span lang="EN-US">,</span>则将继续向上<span lang="EN-US">,</span>反之<span lang="EN-US">,</span>美元仍有回调的可能性</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>本周五美国公布非农就业人数看来是一个关键点</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/>&#8209;<br/></span>昨晚<span lang="EN-US">,</span>欧元出现了一定的下跌<span lang="EN-US">,</span>盘中最低跌至<span lang="EN-US">1.4592,</span>为<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">16</span>日以来最低水平</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>昨日美元反弹是欧元回调的主要原因<span lang="EN-US">.</span>同时昨日下午欧元区公布的经济数据较为疲软也对欧元走势较为不利</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>昨日下午欧元区公布的<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份零售销售月率下降<span lang="EN-US">0.7%,</span>创出<span lang="EN-US">6</span>个月以来最大月率降幅</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>同时<span lang="EN-US">,</span>近期非美货币逐渐开始出现降息<span lang="EN-US">,</span>这也对短线欧元走势较为不利<span lang="EN-US">.</span>目前市场正在关注周四晚上欧洲央行货币政策</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>今日上午到目前<span lang="EN-US">,</span>欧元继续下跌为主<span lang="EN-US">.</span>今日上午欧元盘中最低跌至<span lang="EN-US">1.4576,</span>为<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">13</span>日以来最低水平<span lang="EN-US">.</span>截止发稿时<span lang="EN-US">,</span>欧元运行在<span lang="EN-US">1.46</span>整数关之下</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>从短线走势看<span lang="EN-US">,</span>欧元也面临较大的考验<span lang="EN-US">.</span>如果短线欧元进一步有效跌破<span lang="EN-US">1.4560,</span>那么欧元将可能继续进入回调<span lang="EN-US">,</span>预计调整目标位将下移至<span lang="EN-US">1.42-1.43</span>区间<span lang="EN-US">,</span>反之<span lang="EN-US">,</span>如果近期欧元不有效跌破<span lang="EN-US">1.4560,</span>则未来还是具备向上反弹的条件</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>在欧元没有有效跌破<span lang="EN-US">1.4560</span>之前<span lang="EN-US">,</span>笔者个人还是对未来欧元走势保持乐观的情绪</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/>&#8209;<br/></span>昨晚<span lang="EN-US">,</span>日元再次因美国股市上涨<span lang="EN-US">,</span>而出现较大的下跌<span lang="EN-US">.</span>昨晚<span lang="EN-US">,</span>日元盘中最低跌至<span lang="EN-US">110.96.&#8209;<p></p></span></font></font></span></p><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 14.95pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt;"><font face="宋体" size="3">由于套息交易再度活跃<span lang="EN-US">,</span>这也是造成日元昨晚下跌的主要原因</font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>今日上午到目前<span lang="EN-US">,</span>日元继续表现出下跌的走势<span lang="EN-US">.</span>今日上午日元盘中最低跌至<span lang="EN-US">111.18,</span>截止发稿时<span lang="EN-US">,</span>日元波动在<span lang="EN-US">110.90</span>附近</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>由于近期日本央行无加息的预期<span lang="EN-US">,</span>所以当套息交易再度活跃的时候<span lang="EN-US">,</span>日元再次遭受市场的抛售</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>另一方面<span lang="EN-US">,</span>一旦美元强劲反弹<span lang="EN-US">,</span>前期表现就差于其它非美货币的日元<span lang="EN-US">,</span>其走势将显得更为艰难</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>但是<span lang="EN-US">,</span>就笔者个人而言<span lang="EN-US">,</span>还是倾向于日元下跌之后还是有反弹的可能性</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>预计近期日元下档在<span lang="EN-US">112-112.50</span>一线有较大的支持<span lang="EN-US">.</span>笔者认为<span lang="EN-US">:</span>只要近期日元不有效跌破<span lang="EN-US">112.50,</span>未来还是有反弹机会</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/></span>从技术上看<span lang="EN-US">,</span>近期日元上档在<span lang="EN-US">109-110</span>区间还是有较大的阻力</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/>&#8209;<br/></span>关注今日主要经济数据以及重要事件</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">:&#8209;<br/></span>关注<span lang="EN-US">:</span>今日下午英国公布的<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份制造业产出<span lang="EN-US">,</span>英国公布的<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份工业产出<span lang="EN-US">,</span>德国公布的<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份工厂订单<span lang="EN-US">,</span>今晚英国央行货币政策<span lang="EN-US">,</span>欧洲央行货币政策以及欧洲央行行长特里谢的讲话</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/>&#8209;<br/></span>今日主要货币操作建议</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">:&#8209;<br/></span>有关美元汇率</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">:&#8209;<br/>1.</span>如果美元指数反弹在<span lang="EN-US">76.50</span>点一线<span lang="EN-US">,</span>请继续逢高卖出</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/>2.</span>前期已经卖出美元的投资者继续保持观望<span lang="EN-US">,</span>等待未来买入机会</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/>3.</span>预计近期美元指数在<span lang="EN-US">75.50</span>点一线有支持</font></font><font face="宋体"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">.&#8209;<br/>4.</span>但是一旦近期美元指数有效突破<span lang="EN-US">76.50</span>点<span lang="EN-US">,</span>则美元仍有继续上涨的可能性<span lang="EN-US">,</span>操作上可以</font></font><span lang="EN-US"><br/></span><font face="宋体" size="3">追高买入</font><font face="宋体"><span lang="EN-US"><font size="3">.&#8209;</font><br/></span></font></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div>[em01][em02]