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[股票] 美国大选对股市的影响

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发表于 11-11-2016 10:28:06|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 牛@钱途 于 11-11-2016 10:31 编辑

从“笑话”到“神话”|有一种东西叫民心所向! (转帖)





全体民主党和大多数的共和党,没错就是基本整个建制派都是反川普的。

整个国家机器,白宫,FBI, 司法部,国务院,税务部,这其中包括近30年的所有总统,老布什,克林顿,小布什,奥巴马。







除了默多克手下的Fox,其他所有传统媒体全部倒向希拉里。所以维基解密虽然在自媒体领域腥风血雨,传统媒体基本从不报道。



整个好莱坞,整个娱乐圈基本都是希拉里的铁杆阵营,就好比李易峰和宋仲基跑出来在竞选集会上拉票。



整个社会的文化精英们,370个经济学家出来背书希拉里,大学基本都是希拉里的铁盘。



华尔街大鳄,高科技公司新贵,中东石油资本组成的超豪华资本啦啦队,给了希拉里充足的竞选资金。



再来看看自媒体领域,硅谷大佬们基本全部是希拉里的簇拥,群众们喜闻乐见的谷歌,脸书,推特,微软都或明或暗支援希拉里,撤热搜,删评论,把川普团队的竞选邮件分类垃圾邮件,谷歌甚至把川普的丑闻放在搜索川普的最前面,顺带屏蔽了维基解密。



强大的亲友助选团,整个川普竞选团队的核心全部是川普的儿女,所谓上阵父子兵,打虎亲兄弟,不是川普任人唯亲,实在是无人可用。中间最低谷的时候,差点副手彭斯都要抛弃他。



神一样的队友,阿桑奇领导的维基解密,还有黑客KimXX 默多克的Fox集团,这些都是希拉里曾经压迫过的人们,我们要相信所有的作恶最后都会吞下苦果。



意识形态趋于保守的人们,这其中有基督徒,天主教,以及所有尊重普世价值的人们。
失落的贫中产,在全球化浪潮下,一部分富裕的中产开始堕入贫困的深渊,失落的五大湖地区在沉默中酝酿。




胸怀理想和正义的公职人员,比如为调查克林顿基金前后奔走的独立检察官,暗潮汹涌的FBI中低层的抗争。


被政治正确压迫到极限的警察系统。



被社会福利不公平待遇伤害到的无数退伍老兵。
抛开川普的那些种种不靠谱的大嘴巴,黄段子,自大浮夸的个性,我更愿意相信土豪川普的心中一直住着一个“白衣少年”。



而此刻川普完成了他三十年前的承诺。正如他在葛底斯堡的演讲一样。
“I’m not a politician, and have never wanted to be one. But when I saw the trouble our country was in, I knew I couldn’t stand by and watch any longer. Our country has been so good to me, I love our country, I felt I had to act,” said Mr. Trump in his address.”
翻译过来就是林则徐的那句名言“苟利国家生死已,岂因福祸避趋之。”



历经磨难,矢志不移,叫做信念。不畏强权,虽死无惧,叫做勇气。然后人生光有这两样是不够的,信念和勇气还需要有手段和头脑来支撑。
很多国内的朋友一直问我,美国人为啥支持一个疯子,那是因为媒体让我们看到了一个疯子一样的川普,拨开迷雾,纵观川普的整个竞选之路,如果他真是个疯子,没头脑和不高兴,是绝对不可能走到今天这一步的,恰恰相反,沃顿商学院的高材生给我们所有人上了一堂生动的市场推广大课。



川普的竞选理念痛点清晰,口号简短有力。他的政策宣传始终围绕三点来谈“工作”“安全”“医保”,这三点无一不是广大选民现实中面对的困难和威胁。很多时候他又能独辟蹊径带来意想不到的选民支持,比如关注退伍老兵,拿退伍老兵的福利对比非法移民的福利。再来说说口号“make America great again”实现美利坚的伟大复兴,再来对比一下希拉里的“strong together”团结就是力量,你觉得哪个更能撼动人心?话说川普的口号真的没有抄袭“实现中华民族的伟大复兴”么?



国家向左,人民向右。奥黑上台的八年是美国民族分裂加剧的八年,我一天天深刻而清晰的感觉到民族与民族之间的隔阂越来越深,警察系统逼近崩溃导致社会治安越来越糟,公立教育,学区系统都遭受了前所未有的挑战,比如同厕案,比如AA法案。

就像我的朋友说的“以后不光是上学,连工作都要AA,如果努力工作学习的人因为政策原因失去向上的机会,我觉得当年来美国求学的初衷已经不复存在了”。







川普能一路走最重要的力量就是来自这些被逼到不得不反抗的沉默的大多数,这里有你有我,有无数为未来忧虑的人们。任何精英如果和底层人民割裂开,必将被另外一拨精英所取代,川普就是“另外一拨精英”。相信民众,依靠民众,正是因为这样,川普以70岁高龄坚持了三个月每天三场拉力演讲,到最后两天每天六场的疯狂行程表,这些演讲每场基本都是几万人,当然这些媒体都不会报道。

  



不管是乔治亚洲打着川普竞选标志的牛仔,还是在密西根顶着凄风冷雨排队投票的民众,请感受这种沉默的力量。



这是美国阿米什人传统标志性的马车。拒绝融入现代社会,避世几百年的他们都出来背书川普。


道路是曲折的,过程是黑暗的,自由之代价才使自由更加珍贵。成功之艰难才使成功更加让人心潮澎湃。

这场总统选举对华人的意义不光是争取自己的权益,它还创造了华裔在美参政的多个“从来没有”。



从来没有看到华裔如此关注选情,整个华裔社区全面深入的在讨论美国大选;
从来没有这么多华裔政治捐款;
从来没有这么多华裔义工参与直接竞选工作;
从来没有这么多华裔注册选民和这么高的投票率。



不过国内的吃瓜群众问的最多的是在美华裔为什么选川普?这个问题可以很复杂,也可以很简单。
引用我特别喜欢的一句话:“慷他人之慨,舍他人之命,成全自己的道德优越感是不可能成功的。”
同厕法案,性别重新定义,公立学校被同性教育大规模渗透,已经在让民主党在左的道路上越走越远。尊重同性恋的合法权益,不代表必须忍受牺牲自己的价值观。所以娃爸娃妈们为了孩子们能有个性别清晰的厕所在战斗!




反对大赦墨西哥非法移民。希拉里要大赦一千一百万非法墨西哥移民,这些人的福利是个天文数字,简直是奥巴马医疗之后,对中产的会心一击。
反对无条件接受数百万计的穆斯林难民。看看现在的巴黎,德国,陷入混乱,暴力的欧洲,这些都是华裔不能容忍的。



政治正确和种族分离造成警察不敢放手整治治安,整个司法系统都开始堕落,尤其是中国城,被很多罪犯列为首要目标。

不管川普为人如何,克林顿和民主党在念书和工作上搞AA和diversity,就是将重视教育的华人利益拱手献给非裔和西裔的党派,他们就失去了无数华人的支持。教育是华人最看重的蛋糕,谁动谁就是敌我矛盾!
虽然华人在美国属于沉默的少数族群,但是不鸣则已,一鸣惊人。



这次宾夕法尼亚这个传统的蓝营重镇能够翻红,华裔义工功不可没。

纽约,新泽西的华人跨州支持宾州的扫街拜票。很多人一到周末就开车三个多小时,赶赴宾州共和党竞选部。挨家挨户的敲门、拜票、聊大选,聊为什么选川普。有不少义工至少拜访了5000家选民,而华人义工是整个宾州扫街队伍里的绝对主力。海外论坛有宾州前线义工来交流扫街感受说过:“很多宾州选民是不愿意开门的,但是后来一看到华人就主动开门合照,因为华人川普拜票团已经深入宾州家家户户,他们甚至要求合影留念”。



“当你告诉这些选民,你开了三个小时车才来到这里,他们会对你印象特别深刻,对你聊得东西才会有记忆点,到了选举日,这些都会决定胜负”。
当然还有侧面辅助战,在宾州腹地立广告牌子,飞机上天挺川,无数外州华人虽然不能去宾州拜票,但是一直踊跃捐款支援宾州。



当背书川普的阿米什人需要大量车子运送他们前方宾州投票站的时候,宾州华人组织立刻动员了大量私家车和公交,这个最重要的秘密武器顺利亮剑。

国内人民听完这些纷纷感叹,这是跟希拉里多大仇多大怨啊!

不,这只是华人作为一个被AA列出来单挑的民族被逼到角落反弹的胜利。川普并不是最终解决方案,这不是华裔争取自己平等权利和地位的结束,而仅仅是开始,接下来的路还要华人们自己走。

最后的最后,我觉得这场史上最黑暗最残酷最戏剧的选举终于落下的大幕,恭喜川普顶着无比巨大的压力,秉持无比坚定的信念走到华盛顿。这场堪称奇迹一样的胜利,让我感受到美国这个国家还是有自我修复能力的,这届群众还是行的。


年逾古稀的川普,走到人生的末年,本已功成名就,儿孙满堂,绝对的人生赢家,但是却选择出来带领沉默的大多数一起抗争即将倾覆的巨轮,算是对三十年前自己的承诺有个交代。从心理学的角度,川普这是要搞事情!!可以期待这位有点疯癫,但心如明镜的美国新任总统,给美国来一次不可预知的大手术。

“老骥伏枥,志在千里;烈士暮年,壮心不已。”



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发表于 11-11-2016 13:41:17|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
小狮租房
牛@钱途 发表于 11-11-2016 10:28
从“笑话”到“神话”|有一种东西叫民心所向! (转帖)

文章的主人真心的苦大仇深!
不过讲的都是事实!最近这段时间美国的媒体真的无耻到了极点!
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发表于 11-11-2016 14:15:48|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tspgraph 于 11-11-2016 14:25 编辑

我也喜欢川谱.
不过他老人家上台的趋势, 今天已经看出来了.

各国货币对美元均下跌, 有的还跌的比较厉害. 象马币最多跌了4%, 人民币和新元也是持续下跌.
估计加锡亦是指日可待, 肯定要实施的事情了. 贷款比较多的同学, 可能得多花钱了.
还有他老人家貌似喜欢传统工业, 主张美国狂开采石油, 还有制造业回美国, 肯定会枪比了TPP, 对倚重油气的马国和坡坡都不是好事情吧. 不知道会不会对坡坡经济,工作形式持续有较大负面影响.
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发表于 11-11-2016 14:27:32|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
美国的石油似乎50美金以下并不能盈利。
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发表于 12-11-2016 13:23:53|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
vivocity2010 发表于 11-11-2016 13:41
文章的主人真心的苦大仇深!  
不过讲的都是事实!最近这段时间美国的媒体真的无耻到了极 ...

最近这些年去美国的中国新移民有视野有行动力的人不是少数,为自己和孩子们争取生存发展的空间的战斗力是有的。赞。


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发表于 12-11-2016 13:25:28|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
tspgraph 发表于 11-11-2016 14:15
我也喜欢川谱.
不过他老人家上台的趋势, 今天已经看出来了.

奥巴马政府放弃在特朗普上台前通过TPP

(联合早报)路透社报道,美国贸易代表办公室周五称,在特朗普宣誓就职以前,该办公室将暂停其为推动现任总统奥巴马标志性的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)获批所作出的努力,并表示未来这将由特朗普和美国国会中的共和党领导人来决定何时对TPP进行投票。

在过去几个月时间里,美国贸易代表办公室一直都在对国会议员展开游说,希望说服其在大选过后批准这项协定。不过,出人意料的美国总统选举结果意味着特朗普将会上台,而且共和党将继续保留对国会两院的掌控权,从而使得这计划受阻。

“我们与国会展开密切的合作以解决悬而未决的问题,并做好了取得进展的准备,不过,这是一个立法程序,需要由国会领导人来决定是否以及何时推进相关程序。” 美国贸易代表办公室的发言人麦克阿凡纳(Matt McAlvanah)在声明中说道。
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发表于 12-11-2016 13:26:13|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
千股涨停 发表于 11-11-2016 14:27
美国的石油似乎50美金以下并不能盈利。

页岩气的成本更高?
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发表于 12-11-2016 15:42:08|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
亚当·瓦林斯基:我是肯尼迪的演讲撰稿人,但这次支持特朗普
观察者  发表时间:2016-11-04 07:43:37


我的一生都是一个民主党人。当年为效力美国总统约翰·肯尼迪和总检察长罗伯特·肯尼迪,我来到华盛顿。当肯尼迪总统被谋杀,他的兄弟罗伯特离职后,我加入了罗伯特的参议员竞选活动,做了他的司法助理和演讲稿撰写人,直到他自己因竞选总统被刺杀。我自己在1970年以民主党身份参加纽约州选举失利,当我在20世纪80年代和90年代努力制定我自己的警察改革计划时,当时的比尔·克林顿州长是我的警察兵团 (the Police Corps) 的全国委员会主席。

亚当·瓦林斯基(左)

今年,我决定将投票选川普作美国总统。

如此巨大的决定,并出于对故情旧交的尊重,这里我对此决定作一个公开说明:

约翰和罗伯特·肯尼迪将他们最大的承诺和精力致力于防止战争和维护世界和平。对他们来说,这不是一个抽象的公式,而是人类生活的必要基础。 但是,今天的民主党已经成为一个战争党:一个由军火商、雇佣兵、学术战争策划者、干预外国的游说家们、绿色革命的推动者、转基因食物的推动者、失败的将军们、腐败的政府官员及其自然资源的掠夺者构成的家庭。我们在80个国家有美军基地,在大约130个国家有地面军事人员。这真是一个 “了不起” 的成就,因为世界上总共只有192个国家。 将领们宣布我们的国家政策,战区指挥官是我们的首席大使。 我们对任何问题或者任何形式的反对,第一个回答似乎永远是一个军事行动。

今年的民主党总统候选人希拉里·克林顿也没有寻求和平意愿,相反,她把美国连续推进到侵略行动中。她试图通过把俄罗斯总统普京定性为另一个希特勒来防止美国人民寻求与他的友谊和合作。她宣布自己已经准备好在宣誓就职后立即入侵叙利亚。她预定的战争内阁很多都是在过去几十年里带来无尽战争和灾难的人,及那些带领我们进入伊拉克、阿富汗、叙利亚、利比亚、也门、乌克兰的新保守主义者。他们对所有过去的错误毫无悔意,并且随时准备砸下万亿美元和新鲜血液重启这一切。而她带领的民主党似乎意图通过派美国军舰进入黑海或者把核武器部署在更接近俄罗斯本土的地方来恶化与俄罗斯的关系。

事实上,在从开始到至今的反恐怖战争里,只有一个美国总统候选人具有潜在的智力、远见与理智去看到美国不能同时和整个世界开战。他看到美国在这场斗争中必须要跟其他国家合作。中俄经历过自己的反恐战争并获得经验,同时拥有很强的军事力量来打击恐怖主义。

只有一个总统候选人指出,在我们正试图压制正在攻击中俄的圣战者们的同时,再寻求与俄罗斯和中国对抗是多么的毫无意义。

那位总统候选人就是川普。

在整个竞选过程中,他说作为总统他将很快与普京总统坐下来寻求缓和我们两国之间的紧张关系,在打击恐怖分子的战争中建立可能的合作。 单就这个理由,标志着他的智力与远见已经大大超越了他这次大选竞争中的所有对手。

还必须说:川普先生是一个不完美的候选人,而且他将肯定是一个不完美的总统。他冷酷,粗俗。在有些领域他很无知。他侮辱人且造成不必要的伤害。他如果只说了他一半的话,就会成为一个加倍好的候选人。他虽然经常无节制,但并不是川普,而是他的无节制的对手将普京在乌克兰的行动比作希特勒的行动。这种侮辱的头衔,即使在整个冷战过程中,也从没有一个美国总统给任何前苏联或俄罗斯领导人戴上过,甚至对屠夫斯大林也没有,事实上我们还和他合作赢得了二次大战的胜利。不是川普,而是迈克尔·莫雷尔(前中央情报局局长,目前的民主党候选人的高参)公开建议我们应该开始“绞杀俄罗斯”,这种双重违法的战争行为竟然无人给予驳斥。

此外川普显示自己是一个具有独特政治勇气的男子汉。愿意抵抗歇斯底里的华盛顿战争鹰派,建制派和主流媒体。他们每天就是把川普说成是反美国的,只因他敢于说出他不同于他们单一的狂热的战争倾向的观点和意见。

约翰·肯尼迪有惊人的政治勇气。他在冷战的高潮时开始第一次国会议员竞选时说:“最重要的是,我们要日以继夜,用我们全部的创造力和努力,为和平而战。我们需要另一场战争。”多年以后,在1962年的古巴导弹危机中,他和他的兄弟不得不克服来自于自己的军事指挥官、政府官员和其他公共领导人的反对,以避免与苏联的战争。当时共有13人在ExComm房间,罗伯特·肯尼迪说,只要其中八个人中的任何一个人是现在的总统,美俄将爆发为核战争。

仅仅在一年以后,肯尼迪总统就建立了与苏联领导人尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫紧密的工作关系。他在全国各地演讲,促进和平的政策,并在1963年发表了他的历史性的美国大学演讲。他说,“我们和平的战略不是一个由强制执行战争的美国武器推行的美式和平的世界,相反,它必须建立在谈判之上,在共同感兴趣的领域加强合作,并承认,我们最基本的共同点是,我们都生活在这个小小的星球。我们都呼吸着同样的空气。 我们都珍惜子孙的未来。 我们都是凡人。” 至于我们的大仇敌苏联,他说,“我们必须重新审视我们自己的态度,作为个人和作为一个民族,我们的态度和他们的态度一样,都是至关重要的。

约翰·肯尼迪

六个月后,他就死了。罗伯特·肯尼迪继续了他的梦想。罗伯特·肯尼迪将禁止核试验条约的批准作为他在参议院的职业生涯的早期重点。 随着林登·约翰逊总统升级越南战争,这就迫使罗伯特·肯尼迪参加了争夺总统宝座之争。 1968年无论他在哪里竞选,几乎对每一位听众,他都述说那场战争的的残酷,恐怖和悲剧。他的话语,在经历连续15年世界各地战争的今天,需要重复,“我们勇敢的年轻人,正在东南亚的沼泽地里死去。这其中可能有人会写一首诗,这其中有人可能会治愈癌症,这其中有人可能会在世界大赛中拿奖,或是在舞台给我们欢笑,或建设一座桥梁或一个大学,这其中有人教孩子阅读。让这些人活下来是我们的责任。如果他们因为自己国家的虚荣心而死亡是多么可悲的一件事情。”

他还敦促我们考虑越南的母亲们。她们绝望地试图保护她们的小孩免于从空中而来的,从一个她们几乎无法理解的国家机器发出的炸弹。他要求在参议院的同僚回答一个问题,即是谁给了我们摧毁在世界的另一边的偏远乡村,并自称自己从神得来的力量来决定他人的生和死的权力? “这一切都是我们的责任,” 他说,“不只是一个国家的,而是你和我的责任。”

约翰和罗伯特·肯尼迪要求大国必须非常精确和克制,谦卑使用权力和武力。他们俩都知道自己有被暗杀的可能性,但他们一直努力引导我们走向和平一直到到他们的死亡时刻。然而肯尼迪和肯尼迪的遗产正在被今天的民主党放弃。

我们已经把一个又一个的中东国家打碎。数以百计的城市和村庄已沦为废墟。成千上万的人都死于非命,难民数以百万计;  并且,尽管所有的媒体叫着反对ISIS、基地组织或伊斯兰恐怖主义的威胁,但我们的军队领导人没有任何解决的办法。 他们不能告诉我们要取得胜利需要什么或什么意味着胜利。但他们又很快向我们保证,正如在今天的利比亚的情形,这场冲突将无限期地继续下去。他们甚至不能解释为什么一些我们目前的盟友(例如土耳其)在轰炸和炮击我们某些人声称的盟友(例如库尔德人)。 因此,民主党政府正在年复一年地推进布什总统任期的工作。他们没有思想,不加疑问,不停地派遣更多的青年男女进入战争绞肉机。

大量的民选的民主党官员曾经一度孜孜不倦地呼吁和努力去结束我们在越南的灾难性的战争。而今天国会只有民主党众议员图尔西·加伯德的反战的声音。她曾是一个预备役军人并两次被部署在伊拉克,只有她对她所言深知明了。一个民主党的总统无休止地派遣无数无人机到许多其他国家,以展示美国独特的军事技术,而对我们这个技术如何破坏其他国家和人民则全然熟视无睹。

图尔西·加伯德

然而,最惊人的是,当我们宣布恐怖分子威胁欧洲,威胁美国,威胁到西方文明,当我们面对这一切,我们却不集中我们的军力对付这一独特的威胁。

我们把我们的战士、我们的战舰、我们的飞机送往哪里?为什么是俄罗斯,一个指挥北约的美国将军宣称俄罗斯是对美国的主要 “存在”的威胁。 当你读到这里的时候,一个主要由美国领导和支付北约的地面,空中和海军部队,已经朝着俄罗斯的西部边界展开自二战以来最大规模的军事演习。与此同时,我们最强大的航空母舰战斗群和海军航空兵部队已经在中国南海跃跃欲试。在那里,我们可能与中国这个潜力未知,我们所说的第二个"假想"敌人发生冲突。

并没有从俄罗斯来的恐怖分子肆虐法国、意大利或美国。ISIS不是在俄罗斯土地上产生的。唯一袭击西方的俄罗斯恐怖分子是普京总统早在1999年就要求我们联合反对的。中国唯一的恐怖分子是正在攻击我们又攻击中国本身的维吾尔人。这似乎是美国本应很久以前就知道的基本常识,即不要与俄罗斯和中国对抗,而是要合作共同对付困扰我们这一代人的恐怖分子,包括今天把欧洲恐吓坏了的ISIS。

前国防部长威廉·佩里,一位民主党人警告说,我们现在“正处于新冷战的门槛上,新的核军备竞赛,核灾难的可能性比在冷战期间更大。”

当然,当前的战争和即将爆发的战争威胁将是任何大国都不能承受的。因为每个有头脑的人都知道我们这个帝国越积越多的不可想像的债务。这沉重的负担来自于我们的政府,我们的企业,我们的家庭,我们的学生,以及我们对未来无限的福利承诺。经年不断的战争耗尽了我们的军队。虚假的希望与胜利的承诺己经烧破了我们前一代开始的战争理想主义。我们的部队疲惫了,尤其是一直被不断地部署了超过十年的战斗部队。

不过糟糕的是,还有更多这样的事情发生。今年夏天的悲惨事件表明真正的危险潜伏在这个国家里面。这不是来自叙利亚或伊拉克或俄罗斯的外在危险,而是我们自己所承继的历史的危险。

事实是,当我们追逐那远离我们的土地上的和平和正义的怪兽时,将我们和我们的理念强加在那些拒绝我们的教导的陌生人身上时,我们却忽略了我们自己的国家和我们的人民,我们的邻居,我们自己孩子和自己的朋友们。现在我们可以看到结果了,我们带给其他国家的暴力反弹到我们自己身上。我们有钱用在伊拉克的炸弹上却没有钱去花在我们自己的学校。优秀的男女青年被送到遥远的战场,使他/她们不能在家教育和指导我们的孩子,使他/她们无法帮助引导贫民窟的年轻人,使他/她们不能在这里穷街陋巷做警察去制止和消除那因贫穷而导致的犯罪,使他/她们不能在这里维护美国宪法给予人们的基本权利,使他/她们不能在这里保护美国的城市和丰富人们的生活,使他/她们没有在这里让美国人和美国的儿童免于谋杀美国警察。这是我们现在真正的危险。

死在伊拉克的士兵的棺材被运回美国国内

所以,我对美国的希望是这样的。首先,我们必须立刻开始结束参与无尽的不必要的因此杀气腾腾的战争。我们需要我们的最好的年轻的人来参与帮助我们。我们需要停止对更具破坏性的军备鲁莽的军事开支。我们需要重新呼吸自由。

我们必须抵挡文明秩序的致命敌人。ISIS及其小弟兄们必须予以消灭,没有怜悯,没有犹豫。但是,我们需要让所有民族参与我们的共同防御。我们必须放弃愚蠢的小规模冲突和小心眼。我们必须结束我们反射性的主宰其他发达国家的努力,尤其是俄罗斯和中国。

所以,我对美国的希望是这样的。首先,我们必须立刻开始结束参与永无止境的不必要的战争,我们需要优秀的年轻人来参加美国的建设。我们需要停止对研制具有更大破坏性武器的军事开支。我们需要重新呼吸自由。

肯尼迪总统反复地告诉我们,在这个危险的世界上,我们自己的和平与安全将取决于俄罗斯和与俄罗斯人民的和平合作关系。里根在他的总统任期结束时也说了同样的话。在华盛顿的傻瓜们意图一统天下,希望我们现在忽略这个智慧。但是,我们需要这样的智慧来维护这个世界和我们孩子们的未来。

第二,我们必须同时开始恢复我们国内的和平环境。有太多的弊病要治愈,太多的缺点要纠正。

我们首要的任务是制止对警察的暴力行为。我们需要加强我们的警察和警察部门,我们需要更多和更好的警察。我们需要他们得到更好的培训,培训他们不是作为战士而是作为牧羊人,作为领导者和年轻的教师,作为和平的社区的调解人。我们不要让我们最好的年轻人在阿富汗被简易爆炸装置炸飞他们的腿,而是要让他们去保护在圣路易斯、芝加哥、底特律和所有其他地方人民的生命安全。

川普的“美国第一”已被无情地嘲笑。但是,要求政府的政策,无论在国内还是国外,首先是寻求我们自己国家的利益并不是老式的或过时的。相反,它代表了立国者们最深的智慧和美国政治家的传统。 只有真正明确什么是我们国家和我们同胞的真正利益,并对这些利益作出充分承诺,才能明智地在国内和世界采取行动。

最后,我们的总统告诉我们,我们说的太多了。当然,我们不希望引起争端。但是,美国人民也许已经沉默了太长时间。舆论和政府的权贵们毫不犹豫地用他们高高在上的权力和地位替我们作主。正是这些人导致我们陷入无用的对外战争和无限的国内灾难。现任总统告诉我们,现在我们必须要花上另一个万亿美元来开发新的核武器系统,而当我们询问谁将会成为这些销毁世界的武器的目标,他只说,“我们不能与俄罗斯做正常交易”。

任何人都可以看到我们是在走向疯狂。我们根本无法对抗整个世界,俄罗斯、中国和中东地区的所有国家。

因此,我们的公民不能保持沉默,我们必须用同一个伟大的声音,一个与华盛顿、杰斐逊、林肯、马丁·路德·金一样强大的声音说出我们的想法。

让我们回归立国者们的智慧,他们用必要的战争来保卫联盟,但并没有寻求征服他国。

我们不要跨进一个新的冷战和与俄罗斯和中国新的核军备竞赛的门槛。而应该寻求争取他们的共同努力去抵御威胁整个文明的恐怖主义。

我们要维护保持我们自己国内的和平与安全,而不是在持续徒劳地努力想控制世界上二百个外国的事务。

这一点,据我所知,是川普的政策所在。这不是共和党所喜欢的,他必须克服他的党内的反对而推行。 但是,这是他的治国之策。 这是他一次又一次地重申,并且有决心实施的施政方针。他用勇气和毅力来打垮了对他的批评。即使在今天困境重重的时候,这是唯一能够满足所有政党和最大多数美国人希望的政策。

那么我们是否可以说川普是否具备了作为一个总统应有的那种冷静的判断和自我控制,在危机中拯救一个民族或者世界的判断力呢?没有人能够真正知道未来的总统在未来如何对如此巨大的压力作出的反应,但川普给了我们一些证据。 他给自己定下一个独特的走向椭圆形办公室的路线,蔑视平常的智慧,讲出了比任何一个咨询家和顾问更多的关于政治和美国的真相。 然而,正因为他的独立性,他那种愿意说出不管如何令人不愉快的事实的胆量,再加上他伟大的政治勇气,给我们带来了希望甚至一些信心,他可能胜任这项工作。也许最重要的是,他已经证明了他不会被一些将领阻吓,正是这些将领到今天为止用自己畅通无阻的方式搅和我们的战争和预算,并导致美国的巨大损失。

他可能是有缺陷的,但川普比我们现时的政治家讲了更多的真相。最重要的是,他提供了一个不依靠持续不断的战争的未来之路,他要务实地像经商一样的与所有讲理的国家和人民协作,集中我们的力量和努力对付真正敌人。因此,纠缠于他的缺点和错误是一种对攸关我们人民和国家、战争与和平、生与死之重大问题的逃避。你和我必须接受他在言行举止上的不足以换取和平。这种和平,是林肯希望得到的,是我们希望得到的,也是世界上所有的国家希望得到的。

为我们自己和为我们的后代,美国永远被应该放在第一位。这就是为什么我会投票给川普做总统的原因。


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发表于 14-11-2016 15:40:57|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
原文:I Was RFK’s Speechwriter. Now I’m Voting for Trump. Here’s Why.
The Democratic Party has become something both JFK and RFK would deplore—the party of war.
[size=1em]By ADAM WALINSKY
[size=1em]September 21, 2016  POLITICOMAGAZINE
[size=1em]
I was a Democrat all my life. I came to Washington to serve President John Kennedy and Attorney General Robert Kennedy. When the president was murdered and his brother struck off on his own, I joined his Senate campaign and staff as his legislative assistant and speechwriter, until his presidential campaign ended with his own assassination. I ran on a (losing) Democratic ticket in the New York state elections of 1970. When I was working to enact my own program of police reform in the 1980s and 1990s, then-Governor Bill Clinton was chairman of my National Committee for the Police Corps.
This year, I will vote to elect Donald Trump as president of the United States.




So profound a change, and a decent respect for old friendships, requires me to deliver a public accounting for this decision.
Here it is. John and Robert Kennedy devoted their greatest commitments and energies to the prevention of war and the preservation of peace. To them that was not an abstract formula but the necessary foundation of human life. But today’s Democrats have become the Party of War: a home for arms merchants, mercenaries, academic war planners, lobbyists for every foreign intervention, promoters of color revolutions, failed generals, exploiters of the natural resources of corrupt governments. We have American military bases in 80 countries, and there are now American military personnel on the ground in about 130 countries, a remarkable achievement since there are only 192 recognized countries. Generals and admirals announce our national policies. Theater commanders are our principal ambassadors. Our first answer to trouble or opposition of any kind seems always to be a military movement or action.
Nor has the Democratic Party candidate for president this year, Hillary Clinton, sought peace. Instead she has pushed America into successive invasions, successive efforts at “regime change.” She has sought to prevent Americans from seeking friendship or cooperation with President Vladimir Putin of Russia by characterizing him as “another Hitler.” She proclaims herself ready to invade Syria immediately after taking the oath of office. Her shadow War Cabinet brims with the architects of war and disaster for the past decades, the neocons who led us to our present pass, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen, in Ukraine, unrepentant of all past errors, ready to resume it all with fresh trillions and fresh blood. And the Democrats she leads seem intent on worsening relations with Russia, for example by sending American warships into the Black Sea, or by introducing nuclear weapons ever closer to Russia itself.
In fact, in all the years of the so-called War on Terror, only one potential American president has had the intelligence, the vision, the sheer sanity to see that America cannot fight the entire world at once; who sees that America’s natural and necessary allies in this fight must include the advanced and civilized nations that are most exposed and experienced in their own terror wars, and have the requisite military power and willingness to use it. Only one American candidate has pointed out how senseless it is to seek confrontation with Russia and China, at the same time that we are trying to suppress the very jihadist movements that they also are attacking.
That candidate is Donald Trump. Throughout this campaign, he has said that as president, he would quickly sit down with President Putin and seek relaxation of tensions between our nations, and possible collaboration in the fight against terrorists. On this ground alone, he marks himself as greatly superior to all his competitors, earlier in the primaries and now in the general election.

It must also be said: Mr. Trump is an imperfect candidate, and he would surely be an imperfect president. He is crude, often vulgar. He has areas of great ignorance. He insults people and inflicts unnecessary harm. He would be twice the candidate he is if he used half the words. He is often intemperate; though it is not Trump but his opponent who is so intemperate as to compare Putin’s moves in Ukraine to what Hitler did—an insult that throughout all the Cold War and to this day, no American president has ever offered to any Soviet or Russian leader, not even the enormous butcher Josef Stalin, with whom in fact we joined to win the Second World War. And it is not Mr. Trump but Michael Morell, a former CIA director now high in the councils of the Democratic candidate, who has publicly suggested, without rebuke from anyone, that we should begin “killing Russians,” a doubly illegal act of war.
Moreover Trump marks himself as a man of singular political courage, willing to defy the hysteria of the Washington war hawks, the establishment and the mainstream media who daily describe him as virtually anti-American for daring to voice ideas and opinions at variance with their one-note devotion to war.
***
John Kennedy admired political courage. He began his first campaign for Congress at the height of the Cold War by saying, “Above all, day and night, with every ounce of ingenuity and industry we possess, we must work for peace. We must not have another war.” Years later, in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, he and his brother had to overcome great opposition from their own military commanders, government officials and other public leaders, to prevent a war with the Soviet Union: there were 13 men in the ExComm room, and Robert Kennedy said that had any 1 of 8 of them been president, the crisis would have exploded in nuclear war.
But within a year thereafter, deeply affected by the barely-averted catastrophe, President Kennedy had forged a close working relationship with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, spoke all over the country to promote peace policies, and delivered his historic American University speech of 1963. Our “strategy of peace,” he said, was “not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war.” Rather it must be founded on negotiation, cooperation in areas of mutual interest, and recognition that “our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal.” As to our great adversary the Soviet Union, he said, “we must reexamine our own attitude—as individuals and as a nation—for our attitude is as essential as theirs.”
Six months later he was dead; and it was Robert Kennedy who must resume the effort. Robert Kennedy made ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty the early centerpiece of his Senate career. But as President Lyndon Johnson escalated the war in Vietnam, it was that war which forced Robert Kennedy to make his doomed race for the presidency. Wherever he campaigned in 1968, to virtually every audience, he spoke of the loss, the horror, the infinite tragedy of that war, in words that could be and must be repeated today, after 15 consecutive years of wars all over the world.
“Our brave young men,” he said, “are dying in the swamps of Southeast Asia. Which of them might have written a poem? Which of them might have cured cancer? Which of them might have played in a World Series or given us the gift of laughter from the stage or helped build a bridge or a university? Which of them would have taught a child to read? It is our responsibility to let these men live ... It is indecent if they die because of the empty vanity of their country.”
He also urged that we consider the Vietnamese mother, desperately trying to shield her baby from the fire from the sky, sent by machines from a country she could barely understand. He demanded of his colleagues, on the Senate floor, to answer what gave us the right to destroy remote villages on the other side of the world, to arrogate to ourselves the power of God, the rule of life and death over others. “All this is our responsibility,” he said, “not just a nation’s responsibility but yours and mine.”
John and Robert Kennedy were no pacifists, nor ignorant of the realities of power. But they required that great power be used with great precision and restraint, and with humility. Both knew that their own lives were hostage to the possibility of assassination, yet they kept trying to guide us toward peace up to the moments of their death.
Theirs is the legacy that is being abandoned by today’s Democratic Party. We have broken one Middle Eastern nation after another. Hundreds of cities and villages lie in ruins, hundreds of thousands are dead, millions are refugees; and, for all the press and political thundering against the menace of ISIS, Al Qaeda, or Islamic terrorism generally, our military leaders offer no prospects of victory. They cannot tell us what victory would require or mean; though they are quick to assure us, as in Libya today, that this conflict will go on indefinitely. They cannot even explain how some of our current allies (example Turkey) are bombing and shelling others of our purported allies (example the Kurds). So a Democratic administration, carrying on the work of the Bush presidency, without thought and without question, year after year, has kept sending more young men and women into the grinder.
Scores of Democratic elected officials once spoke and worked tirelessly to end our disastrous war in Vietnam. Today there is only the voice of the marvelous Democratic member of Congress Tulsi Gabbard, a reservist who has twice deployed to Iraq and knows of what she speaks. And it is a Democratic president who sends an endless parade of drones to nations all over the world, flaunting for all to see America’s unique military technology, coupled with our seeming complete carelessness in how that technological prowess destroys people and nations.
Most amazing of all, however, is that as we proclaim that the terrorists threaten Europe, threaten the United States, threaten Western civilization itself—as we face all this, we do not concentrate our military might against this unique threat.
Where are we sending our warriors, our ships, our planes? Why to Russia, which the U.S. general who commands NATO has announced is the prime “existential” threat to America. As you read this, ground, air and naval forces of NATO, led and largely paid for by the United States, have been moving about the Western borders of Russia, carrying out the largest military maneuvers since World War II. At the same time, our most powerful carriers and naval air forces have been steaming about the South China Sea, there perhaps to find encounters of unknowable potential with the rising forces of China, our second said to be “existential” enemy.
There are no Russian terrorists ravaging France or Italy or America. ISIS is not to be found on Russian soil. The only Russian terrorists who have attacked the West are the Islamists whom President Putin first asked us to join in the fight against in 1999. The only Chinese terrorists are Uighurs who are attacking not us but China itself. It would seem elementary common sense that America would have long since sought, not to fight with Russia and China, but to cooperate with both to suppress the terrorists and the terrorism that have plagued us for over a generation, including the ISIS that is terrorizing Europe today.
Former Defense Secretary William Perry, a Democrat, warns that we are now, today, “on the threshold of a new Cold War. ... a new nuclear arms race. ... the likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe is actually greater than it was during the Cold War.”
Surely the wars and threats of war already on our horizon would be more than enough for any empire; and our empire, as every thoughtful person knows, is already staggering under the immeasurable loads of debt piled up by America, by our governments, our corporations, our households, our students, and our promises of unlimited benefits in the future. The years of constant combat have exhausted our military. False hopes and vain promises of victory have burnt up the caches of idealism and patriotic commitment with which we began the wars a generation ago. Our forces are worn out, especially the elite warrior units that have been constantly deployed for more than a decade.
But, ominously, there is more to come, more that already stares us in the face. The dire events of this summer have shown us the true danger that lurks here at home. This is not a danger imported from Syria or Iraq or Russia. Our greatest menace is the danger of our own history, our inheritance to the latest day.
For the fact is that while we chased a chimera of peace and justice in lands far from our own, imposing ourselves and our concepts on strangers who rejected our teachings, we were neglecting our own country and our own people, our own neighbors, our own children and our own friends. And now we can see the result. The violence we took to other countries bounces back to our own. The money we squandered on bombs in Iraq was not available for our own schools. The brilliant young men and women, who gave up their bodies and their lives on distant battlefields, were not here to teach and mentor and guide the young people of the ghetto. They were not here to police the mean streets, to suppress and eliminate the crime that is the greatest cause of poverty. They were not here to bring the protection and the blessings of the American Constitution to the least among us. They were not here to protect American cities and enrich American lives.
And they were not here to keep Americans and American children from murdering American police officers. This is our true present danger.
***
So my hope for America is this. First, we must begin immediately to end our involvement in endless, unnecessary and therefore murderous wars. We need our best young people to help us here at home. We need to stop the reckless military spending on more destructive armaments. We need to breathe free again.
We must and will defend civilized order against its deadly enemies. ISIS and its brethren must be eliminated: no quarter, no hesitation. But we will need to engage all civilized peoples in our mutual defense. We must abandon foolish skirmishes and petty jealousies. We must end our reflexive efforts to dominate other developed nations, especially Russia and China.
President Kennedy told us over and over that our own peace and security, in this dangerous world, would depend upon peaceful and cooperative relations with Russia and the Russian people; indeed, at the end of his presidency, Ronald Reagan said the same. Fools in Washington, intent on world domination, would have us ignore that wisdom now. But it is the wisdom that we need to preserve the world and our children’s future.
Second, we must at the same time begin to recover our domestic peace. There are many ills to be cured, many shortcomings to be righted.
But nothing can be accomplished in the midst of a war against police, an insurrection against the Constitution itself. Our clear priority is reinforcement of our police and police departments. We need many more and better police. We need them to be better trained, not as warriors but as shepherds, as leaders and teachers of the young, as peacemakers in communities that have not known real peace for many years. We need our very best young people, not getting their legs blown off by IEDs in Afghanistan, but saving all of our lives in St. Louis and Chicago and Detroit and Baton Rouge and all the other wasted places in our own land.
Donald Trump has been mocked mercilessly for saying, “America first.” But to demand that all the actions of government, at home or abroad, be first directed at the interests and well-being of our own country is not old-fashioned or outmoded. Rather it represents the deepest wisdom and tradition of American statesmen from the founders on. Only with a clear vision of what is truly in the interests of our nation and our fellow citizens, and a full commitment to those interests, can we act wisely at home and in the world beyond.
Finally, our president has told us we must lower our voices. Of course we do not hope for domestic discord. But the people of the United States have perhaps stood silent for too long. The elites of opinion and government have not hesitated to offer us instruction, from the heights of their power and eminence. These are the people who have led us into useless foreign war and limitless domestic disaster. This president tells us that we must now spend another trillion dollars on new nuclear weapons systems, and when we ask who will be the target for these world-destroying weapons, says only, “There can be no business as usual with Russia.”
Surely he must have misspoken, for anyone can see we are on a course of madness. We simply cannot fight the entire world, Russia and China and all the nations of the Mideast, and fight a war at home all at the same time.
And therefore we citizens must not be silent, we must speak as with one great overwhelming voice, a voice as powerful as Washington, as Jefferson, as Lincoln, as Martin Luther King:
Return to the wisdom of the founders, who fought necessary wars to defend the Union, but sought no foreign conquests.
Do not step over the threshold of a new Cold War, a new nuclear arms race with Russia and China, but seek to enlist them in common ventures to resist the forces of terror and chaos that threaten all civilization.
Commit to our own domestic peace and security, rather than persist in a vain effort to control the lives and affairs of 200 foreign nations.
This, as I understand it, is the platform of Donald Trump. It was not the Republican Party platform, and he had to overcome much opposition within his party to gain the nomination. But it is his platform. It is the platform he has restated again and again, with determination, and with the courage and persistence to outlast his critics. It is a platform that, even in these troubled days, could fulfill the hopes of the greatest Americans of all parties.
Well may we seek reassurance whether Mr. Trump has the kind of cool judgment and self-possession that the presidency requires; the judgment that comes to the fore in crisis, that saves a nation or perhaps a world. No one can ever truly know how a future president will react to such enormous pressures. But Trump has given some evidence. He set himself a unique course toward the office, disdaining conventional wisdom, speaking more truth about politics and about America than any conventional consultant or adviser thought prudent or wise. And yet it is his independence, his willingness to name facts however unpleasant, together with his great political courage, that can give us hope and even some confidence that he may be up to the job. Perhaps most important, he has proven that he is not intimidated by the generals and admirals who have up to this day had their unimpeded way with our wars and our budgets, to the immense loss of both.
Flawed as he may be, Trump is telling more of the truth than politicians of our day. Most important, he offers a path away from constant war, a path of businesslike accommodation with all reasonable people and nations, concentrating our forces and efforts against the true enemies of civilization. Thus, to dwell on his faults and errors is to evade the great questions of war and peace, life and death for our people and our country. You and I will have to compensate for his deficits of civility, in return for peace, we may hope as Lincoln hoped, among ourselves and with all nations.
Truly, America first, last and always; for ourselves and for our posterity. These are the reasons why I will vote for Donald Trump for president.

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Adam Walinsky worked in the Department of Justice during the Kennedy administration and later served as legislative assistant and speechwriter to Sen. Robert F. Kennedy.

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发表于 14-11-2016 15:44:57|来自:新加坡 | 显示全部楼层
川普当选世界会更和平?

如果是,从长远看对投资者是大利好。
如果真打起来,再结实的楼盘,也会塌陷,再坚挺的房价,也会疲软。
而且由此造成的生命财产损失,保险公司是不赔偿的
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