我对于新加坡2013年1月降温新措施的感慨

WAYNEWEI · 发表于 14-1-2013 09:42:38|来自：新加坡

jecyhale 发表于 12-1-2013 14:46
只买不卖其实很好，其实不会受很大影响，而想通过低买高卖的，估计要悠着点了。

想想房价要高涨15%才有 ...

[流动性泛滥是为了投资工业或者科技的，那样会带来社会进步，经济复苏，科技前进，]

这个说法我第一次看到

WAYNEWEI · 发表于 14-1-2013 09:48:46|来自：新加坡

【那些只在新加坡只有一套HDB的新移民将越来越不自信和迷茫，找不到未来了。把国内父母接过来到新加坡养老这点基本需求都会成为要不可极的梦想。房地产领域失去希望和新移民在房地产领域失去梦想将使新加坡变成一个平庸的地方。那几年我还号召大家抢房和抢车，这次调控出来，我已经在新加坡越来越看不到投资的希望了。】

我觉得所谓的未来，不管怎样，不论是调控前还是调控，都不是依靠在房子上的吧。

投资归投资，但人的梦想如果只有房子和车子，这本身就是一种悲哀。

大泰迪 · 发表于 14-1-2013 10:24:34|来自：新加坡

某公司的分析
•       For private housing, the ABSD will take effect on 12 Jan 2013. For purchases made jointly by two or more parties (e.g. a Singaporean with a PR, or a PR with a foreigner), the higher applicable ABSD rate will be imposed. For example, if a citizen purchases a property with a foreigner, the ABSD of 15% will apply. In the case of a joint purchase by Singaporeans, who one of them owns properties, the ABSD of 7% will apply. Singaporean first time buyers and upgraders, and buyers of HDB flats will not be affected by the new measure.

•       Interestingly, there is a relief on EC/HDB given: a borrower is not subject to lower LTV or higher minimum cash down payment when he obtains a loan directly from a property developer.

•       This confirmed our thesis that SG residential upside is capped (HK last measures was Oct 2012 and SG could follow) and we believe these new measures will really take a toll on both volume and pricing in 2013. Coupled this with massive completions in 2013 and 2014, we think rentals could likely drop and prices will follow. We have earlier priced-in a 5% pa drop in prices in 2013-15.

•       We think total volumes could drop by 40-50% from here (ABSD for Singaporean citizen for 2nd home – this is punishing given most Singaporean is dreaming of buying 2nd private property and most HDB loans have been paid out for the last 5 years – kill the mass market; ABSD for PRs for 1st home – this is punishing too and could kill the mass and mid-market demand; ABSD for foreigners could kill the high-end market further).

•       Private home prices now could fall by 10-20% if volume really drops by 40-50%. On our stock coverage, CIT has ~39% exposure to SG residential, UOL has ~12%, KPLD has ~10%, and CAPL has ~8%.

•       The only silver lining is: developers have a strong B/S and might not drop prices (especially given land prices bid have continued to stay high). And developers could take a hit by absorbing the ABSD - yes developers have the ability to given their 20-25% margin by at 5-7% (and could offer more discount to foreigners, if they are persistent). Nevertheless, margin will then be impacted by at least 5-7% (if prices stay stable). On the overall sentiment basis, this could have a bigger impact (esp on secondary market) and could cause the 40-50% volume drop, in which case we think residential prices could head south of 10-20% this and next year.