简短的年终总结(主要是股票方面)

alaincheong · 发表于 2-1-2014 21:15:47|来自：新加坡

xkclzf 发表于 2-1-2014 09:49
我主要是根据基本面选股的, 集永成我知道今年的业绩应该还可以, 而且分红也高, 最近又回购, 交易量也有飙 ...

目前看集永成的状态会比联明好。
集永成的风险在于它除了是发展商也是建筑公司。而目前多数项目是在新加坡（六个），而海外的只有两个澳洲（澳元对新元已经掉了好一阵子了）和一个越南的。

xkclzf · 发表于 2-1-2014 21:43:35|来自：新加坡

灵随心动发表于 2-1-2014 11:30
好帖，谢谢分享～～～

呵呵, 个人的一些拙见
仅供参考

xkclzf · 发表于 2-1-2014 22:03:25|来自：新加坡

alaincheong 发表于 2-1-2014 21:15
目前看集永成的状态会比联明好。
集永成的风险在于它除了是发展商也是建筑公司。而目前多数项目是在新加 ...

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]The following share buy-back done by Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd.:
[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]1) 136,000 shares per notice 00062 broadcasted on 27/12/2013
[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]2) 429,000 shares per notice 00067 broadcasted on 27/12/2013 and
[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]3) 945,000 shares per notice 00103 broadcasted on 30/12/2013
[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]CES Q3 results released 2 days ago were within expectations. Gross profit booked from Prive was very close to my own estimate (about $1m difference). If my other estimates are as accurate, then CES should look attractive based on fundamentals.

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]What is positive is that Tower Melbourne is now more than 95% sold. Based on my estimates, the revenue from this project is above A$300m, with potential gross profit of A$30-60m, depending on assumptions. With TM sales crossing 95%, perhaps CES’ huge 1,000-unit project at Victoria Street will be launched soon.

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]Meanwhile, sales at 9 Residences are gradually increasing, crossing the 50% mark. Junction 9 shops are 91% sold, against my earlier estimate from agents of 95%. Junction 9/9 Residences project is one of the 2 big profit contributors; it can bag more than $125m in gross profit, slightly lower than Alexandra Central’s $140m.

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]Meanwhile, with TOP dates clearer, my estimates of CES net profit for 2013-6 are as follows:

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]2013: $41m, EPS 6.3ct, expected DPS: 3-4ct

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]2014: $94m, EPS 14.5ct, DPS: 4-5ct?
[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)](main contributors: Belvia, Belysa, 100PP (sold units only), My Manhatten)

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]2015: $128m, EPS 19.7ct, DPS: 5-6ct?
[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)](main contributor: Alexandra Central; almost fully sold; progressive recognition from 9 Residences)

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]2016: $97m, EPS 15ct, DPS: 5-6ct?
[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)](main contributor: Junction 9/9 Residences; assumed fully sold)

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]Beyond 2016: Tower Melbourne (95% sold), Victoria Street (not launched), monetization of hotel, purchase of new sites?

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]For prudence, the above figures do not take into account Fulcrum profits (sales only 11%, but this is still a very profitable project), construction profits, San Centre revaluation if any, unsold units at 100PP, and the revaluation surplus of its hotel at Alexandra. Also, most of the projected profits are already “locked in”, ie, these EPS figures come from achieved sales.

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]Construction work at Alexandra Central is pretty fast, and if the shops are ready by next year, 2014 could be a bumper year for CES earnings, with EPS of above 30ct.

[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.00784314)]The above figures show that CES is going to book very good profits consistently from now till 2016, with generous dividends to boot.