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发表于 15-7-2013 22:50:28|来自：新加坡
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SINO GRADNESS，这个是我很喜欢的一只股票， 低PE， 较高的增长和比较好的盈利能力，我copy一下券商的研究报告给大家参考参考
Valuation: SOP-based TP of SGD1.74
What’s changed?
Raising 2013 beverage earnings projections to RMB250m. We were previously forecasting a 2013 net profit for beverages of RMB220m and are now lifting our
assumptions to assume 60% growth in 2013 beverage revenue, with an 18% net profit margin, and for net profit to hit RMB250m. As the conversion rate for the
convertible bonds will be based on the 2013 net profit for beverages, we have seen Management making great efforts to ensure that the
company achieves its 2013 net profit target of RMB 250m to ensure the CBs will be converted at a 6x P/E.
Going all out to boost beverage earnings to RMB250m. Management’s steps
include: i) commencing a sole production line in Sichuan with an annual production
capacity of 70k tonnes, ii) Internal processing of puree, which has seen cost savings
of 15%-20%, iii) planned commencement of its Hubei plant, which will have an
annual production capacity of 100k tonnes by 4Q13, iv) launching new packaging for
beverages, including small soft boxes for children to bring to school as well as tin
cans format, v) launching new products – it launched the loquat mango flavor during
the Chengdu trade show in March this year, which received tremendous response
and was the favorite among clients during the roadshow, vi) expanding into new
provinces and distribution channels.
Changing to Sum-Of-Parts valuation
Using SOP to derive new but higher SGD1.75 TP. We have changed our valuation from one based on P/E to sum-of-the-parts as we feel it is more accurate to value the
beverage business separately in view of the proposed spin-off in Hong Kong. We value Garden Fresh at SGD1.28 per share and its canned food business at SGD
0.46 per share, which adds up to SGD 1.75 per share, for a 39% upside. This translates into an undemanding 7x 2013F P/E.
Sino’s stake in GF post-listing valued at SGD 377m (SGD1.28 per share) We are projecting that Sino’s beverage arm, GF, will achieve the 2013 net profit target of
RMB250m set by its bondholders. This represents a conversion rate of 6x. The conversion will, however, see a dilution in Sino’s stake in GF to 75%. As we are
assuming the issuance of 20% new shares, this stake will decline further to 62.5%. Assuming GF gets listed at a 12x P/E (at a huge discount to its HK peers’ high 20s),
this means that Sino’s 62.5% stake will be worth SGD 377m, or SGD1.28 (294m shares).
Canned food business worth SGD136m (SGD0.46 per share). We are forecasting that the canned food business will generate a 2013 net profit of SGD 27m. Ascribing
a 5x P/E to this business, we derive a valuation of SGD136m, or SGD0.46 per share. We feel that a 5x P/E is not high given that the domestic canned fruits business is
projected to grow at 25% per annum while that for its export canned vegetables business is 5% per annum.
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